Analysis and Reasoning of Economic Imbalances

Analysis and Reasoning of Economic Imbalances

According to the Father of Economics, Adam Smith, China is one of the world's most advanced, rich, fertile, industrious and prosperous countries in the world and it is one of the world's largest economy by nominal GDP. (Gross domestic product) Gross domestic product is a measure of value for all finished goods and services, which is measured quarterly or annually. This value is estimated to determine the economic performance of the country for a period of time. The nominal GDP does not show any differences in the living strategies of the people, but the fluctuations in the exchange rates may result in the countries ranking from time to time. A Comparison of the national wealth to that of other nations is made on purchasing power parity (PPP - estimates the exchange rate between two currencies) Through PPP the economy can solve its problems which arise from the exchange rates, even though it is not free from some drawbacks.

Based on the trade and economic reforms , China maintained poor and inefficient status in the global economy. But in the year, 1979 after implementing foreign trade and investment policies, china is the second largest among the fastest growing economies, maintaining a real average growth of gross domestic product of nearly 10% every year up to 2014. The economic crisis affected badly by the China's economy in 2008 and these trends which resulted in the decline in import, export and in foreign trade also. By this China's government responded and implemented some monetary policies to increase bank lending process. However, the statistics show that there is a decline in the China's economy in recent years. The GDP, which was 10.4% in the year 2010 fell to 7.8% in the year 2012 and a further decline i.e 7.3% in the year 2014.

Stock Exchange:

Despite of having two largest stock markets, China's financial system is restricted to market forces. The two china's stock markets are controlled by the domestic Chinese firms, which resulted a significant volatility in the global market. These stock markets were dominated by the speculators and to the greatest extent the shareholders have less influence to move according to the latest trends in the stock market within a short period. From January to June, 2015 these two stock markets bubbled and the investors were buying stocks on borrowing money. In the June 2015, the bubble blasted and there is a fall in the China's two stock markets by 32% to 40% respectively , resulting a major loss to the economy. With this the government entered into the scene and settled by relaxations in insurance policies and by offering public initials, restricting and selling all share and by buying all SEO (state owned organizations) stocks. According to a report, the government spent nearly $250 billions to standardize the stock markets and the government has certain measure to control the market.

Rise in Reserves in China

The latest release of an International Monetary Fund report says that the value of the dollar has declined in both developing and advanced economies. At last the multilateral reserve currencies are increasingly. The currencies other than dollars are gaining, the euro and yen. There is a drastic change in the 2015 Q2 and 2015 Q1. The value of the dollar depreciated in the Q2 increasing the value of nondollar holdings. Broadly speaking, a small depreciation in the exchange rate during Q2 increased the value share of the euro and yen.

Future strategies to restructure the Economy

The current economic trends of China say that again the Economy is strengthening. The 12th Five year plan of China contains about the economy restructure and the economy is targeting to emerge the industries which are going to play an important role in the future restructure of the economy. In the year 2014, China along with some other countries started a New Development Bank to assist the developing economies. Some financial analysts reported negatively on about China's economic slowdown, but it is the time for the global economy to face the new Chinese economic developments in the coming years.

Silk Road of China

Silk Road of China

As the title of the road might suggest, Silk Road of China is not a single road of some market where you can expect to find noteworthy shops lined up in continuity on the roadside selling unique goods to travellers and tourists. It is, in fact, a very old trade route dating back to around 1 B.C. The route connected China to other lands to the Mediterranean region facilitating trade between them, especially of silk when it came to China as China was the only source of silk in the earlier times.

Though with the coming of engines empowered airplanes and cruise ships, the importance of this route has faded today. But the natural beauty of the entire route, the mesmerising views of vast landscapes and the soothing journey that the route offers that is unaffected to date, has made the route a destination for tourism with UNESCO declaring its Tian Shan Corridor as a world heritage site.

It can be presumed that China as a travel destination to visit the Tian Shan Corridor and walk on the road that once connected Asia; it's worth a shot! And while you have decided to make a visit to this road, check some of our selected spots along the corridor that are surely worthy of dropping by.

Army of Terra Cotta Warriors: If you have ever taken an interest in world history or even studied it in high school then you'd have heard about the Terra Cotta Army. A literal army of warriors having archers, chariots, soldiers and every other human unit that constituted an actual Chinese army except that this army was inanimate and made of clay. The army was made to serve as warriors protecting the first Chinese emperor; Qin Shi Huang in the afterlife and so was buried along with him. Thousands of Terra Cotta warriors have been unearthed and are on display in Shaanxi province that is outside of Xi'an city. Terra Cotta army is indeed a vital piece of Chinese culture that attracts tourists from around the world.

Labrang Monastery: If Buddhism fascinates you; then you have to visit this place. It is one of the most important monasteries of Buddhism and was once home for 4000 monks through which the teachings of Buddha reverberated to the outside. The monastery is still occupied and used by monks who continue to practice Buddhism in the monastery's halls and corridors. It is located in Xiahe town within Gansu province.

Singing Sand Mountains and Crescent Lake: The landscape of desert, sand dunes stretching kilometres in length and a crescent moon shaped lake in the middle of the desert; doesn't that sound like fantasy locations taken out from a story book? A crescent moon shaped lake in the middle of a desert with towering sand dunes whose sand when blown by the wind makes an almost instrumental sound; yes this place is real! It is also situated in Gansu province not much away from Labrang monastery.

Tianchi Lake: Right on the border of China and Korea is situated a lake so beautiful that it literally translates to 'Heaven Lake' in English. Tianchi Lake is a crater lake surrounded by mountains and peaks on all sides. The surface of the lake amidst the white gleam of the high rising peaks gives the scenery of that of a mirrored blue disk. Also, other than its scenic excellence that's almost divine, Tianchi Lake is also quite famous for its monster sightings (good news for thrill seekers).

The list doesn't end here. There are many more places along the Silk Road that shouldn't be left to be visited. So take a vacation, hit the Silk Road and familiarize yourself with a beautiful culture and a multitude of soul-penetrating experiences.

Inferring Information in the Stock Market

Inferring Information in the Stock Market

Anyone who follows the financial markets must already be familiar with the story. Chinese stock markets had previously experienced a boom and the Shanghai Composite was standing at 5,178, when the market reached its peak on June 12. Overall in 2018, Chinese stock market had a loss in 2018 reducing bubble worries. Looking back before this drop the Shanghai index seemed to be continuously rising by more than 135% per year. From a fundamental point of view, the boom was almost incomprehensible. The markets were soaring even when the growth expectation from Chinese economy were vague, corporate profitability was squeezed, while the banks, which dominate the index, experienced a sharp rise in Nonperforming Loans (NPLs). Also during the same time period it was quite clear that the declining GDP growth of China was excessively reliant on the increasingly rapid credit growth. It was also evident that to have a control on credit growth, the GDP growth still had to drop.

The markets reached their peak in mid-June but the panic among the investors began somewhere in the first week of July. Actually July 7 is being referred by many as Black Tuesday of the Chinese market. By that time the Chinese market almost lost one third of its value. Beijing started to implement a series of measure since late June, in order to stop the decline. Ultimately it did not have its desired effects. By the first weekend of July, a complete sense of desperation was being experienced as the regulators did their best by taking exceptional measures in attempt to control the imminent fall.

The panic in the stock market seemed to end on July 9, when Shanghai markets closed up 5.8% on a single day. It was followed by considerable gains on the following Friday and Monday. Although the decline of 3.0 % on Tuesday had the hearts of the investors throbbing again and the nervousness also did not subside over the period of next three days as the markets rose with quite some drama. For now it can be safely said that the panic has finally ended, but with none of the fundamental questions resolved, volatility is still expected. It can also be observed that the markets still remain overvalued. However, there is little doubt in it that at least one more quite nasty bearish trend will take place.

The panic and policy responses have ignited a ferocious debate on the economic reforms of China and Beijing's capabilities regarding the cost of bearing the economic adjustment. Volatility is among this cost. Rebalancing of the economy and withdrawing of the state control over various aspect of the economy, especially the financial system will surely reduce the ability of Beijing to smoothly manage the economy over the short term, although it may be necessary for preventing a dangerous surge in the volatility over long term.

Although volatility is not the only thing to be considered but volatility can never be taken out of the equation. In one variable the volatility can be suppressed just by increasing the volatility in some other variable or by temporary suppression in exchange for more disruptive adjustment at some specific point in future.

When monetary volatility is being considered, for example, whether it is money supply and interest rate volatility or exchange rate volatility, the central banks can make the choice of controlling the later in exchange for greater volatility in the former and vice versa.

In other words, it can be said that the regulators never choose how much volatility will be permitted. Although they can choose any form of volatility which is least preferred by them and then try controlling it. It is always a political choice rather than an economic one. In short it is about deciding that which economic group will have to bear the cost of the volatility.

One way or another, it can be safely said that there is a huge amount of volatility in the Chinese economy. It is not only because of the fact that it is lower in the list of developing countries, which are always more volatile economically as compared to the advanced countries but also because of the fact that it is depending highly on investment for generating growth. It is argued by Hyman Minsky that the economies that are actually driven by the investment are highly volatile and quite susceptible to the changes in the sentiment. He is quite right.

Follow The 3 Wheels to Standardize the Economy

Follow The 3 Wheels to Standardize the Economy

The 2018 G20 Buenos Aires summit, was the 13th meeting of G20, held on 30 November and 1 December 2018. Looking back in time; In the year 1999, an International forum was started to promote discussions on policy issues to build up the financial stability globally. This forum includes institutions such as World Bank, IMF (International Monetary Fund) and World Trade Organization. The forum includes 20 major economies, so it is called G-20 or A Group of Twenty. The G-20 hosts meetings separately with its members. In March, 7th, in Beijing at National People's Congress press meeting, the finance minister of China expressed his view while hosts in a two-day, G-20 meeting.The meeting shaped their comments mainly on government support and on tax reforms. The finance minister also expressed that the government can face the problems, but cannot escape from them. At the end of the G-20 meeting all the leaders, along with the finance minister and Governor of People's Bank agreed to use all the combined available policy tools collectively to strengthen and stabilize the market situations. The finance minister in the G-20 negotiations on monetary policies, he opined generally that the largest economies take an optimistic part in the serious matters and risks. At last the finance minister said that the agreement is up to the expectations of the country.

The media company interviewed the Finance Minister, and inquired about the G-20 meeting about the global economy. The Finance Minister gave a statement , that the fluctuations which are occurring in the bullion market, are because of the pessimistic outlook of the global investors, the leaders vowed that, these factors do not reflect on the global economy and by collective usage of combined policy tools, the government can face the situations, but cannot escape from the situations. Regarding the disagreement on monetary policies, the Finance Minister explained that the negative interest rates may decrease the bank balance sheets which may further lead the economy to risks. Along with the monetary policy , fiscal policies and structural reforms, should be promoted to stabilize the price in the markets. The media asked the finance minister about the how different economic conditions meet the finalized consensus. The Finance Minister replied all the leaders of G-20 agreed to use the policy tools commonly according to their necessity and situation. As the expectations met by the policy tools there will be no scope for the capital flows. The media asked about the structural reforms and the Finance minister replied that the country has lots of opportunities and launched many short and long term measures. He expressed that smaller and mid sized companies have followed the administrative procedures and those were very simplified and innovate. They followed a pricing system and urbanization reforms. The most reason behind this is decentralization. This is the distortion problem. Decentralization may lead to lack of stabilization of the economy.

Targets of G-20:

To run the economy smoothly, every country has to keep in balance all the three wheels that are stability, progress and development. The International Monetary Fund reform has to regulate and strengthen the international coordination to control and stabilize the effects of monetary policies. The progress agenda has to look towards the global supply and demand. All the countries have the policy tools to regulate the institutional policies to increase the trade.The development agenda is the most important where the growth is to be more balanced in the long run. The environmental and many factors involved in the global development agenda. As the world economy started the recovery program, the G-20 started managing its growth and development crisis.

There are high expectations that the 2016, G-20, gives China an ownership to lead the global economic governance, China is preparing to contribute its share for the world's benefit. The main function of the G-20 is to manage the major economic policies and to support the smaller countries. The activities of G-20 are not concerned only within the country, as they are of multi- platform, where the whole china can participate and express their views and support the economic governance. In 2013, the State Counselor said that China is the Participator, supporter and contributor for G-20 consensus.